May 08
Do Preseason Predictions Create A Different Perspective On Manchester United’s Current Position?
It seems like forever ago now, but only a little over two months ago, Manchester United held a 15-point lead over Chelsea in the Premier League table.
Mathematically, Arsenal were United’s closest competition at the time, but even though they were fresh off of the most horrendous run of form in the Roman Abramovich era, many in these parts and elsewhere considered only Chelsea as a threat to United’s title hopes.
Looks like we were right, huh? Coming into tomorrow’s Manchester United-Chelsea at Old Trafford, Chelsea are well and truly nipping at United’s heels, only three points behind and level on goal difference with only three matches remaining. This latest clash of English titans is being pointed as ‘the’ title decider, and if red can trump blue for the third time in a month, United will be within a solitary point (or a Chelsea draw or defeat in either one of their last two matches) of reclaiming Premier League supremacy.
Anything less than a win for United tomorrow, and Chelsea could have a chance to enter the final day of the season with a chance to pull off a miraculous comeback that isn’t nearly as miraculous as their previous numerical deficit might make it appear.
Fixtures have favored Chelsea, and fortune has as well. I mentioned these numbers in a comment in a previous post, but I’ll restate them here. Whereas only three of United’s last eight Premier League games have been at the very friendly confines of Old Trafford, only three of Chelsea’s last nine league games have been away from Stamford Bridge. United have faced trips to Stamford Bridge, Anfield, and the Emirates in that span, while the toughest of Chelsea’s away matches in that time was at Stoke City, a 1-1 draw on April 2, the first game back from a two-week international break.
Favorable as the fixture list has been, Carlo Ancelotti’s side also needed a few bounces in their favor, and they’ve gotten just the ones they needed, one of which involved Tottenham’s Heurelho Gomes taking the phrase a little too literally.
It all started with their controversial 2-1 comeback win over United at Stamford Bridge at the start of March, a result that cut the deficit from 15 to 12 with a match in hand and proved to be the kickstart for the revival that they’ve been on for the last couple of months. Chelsea made the most of that match in hand, and overall, they’ve picked up 25 of a possible 27 points in their last nine matches, with the draw at the Britannia standing as the only blemish alongside eight wins.
A few questionable refereeing decisions could be mentioned in this space with merit, but whether or not certain results have been deserved, they’ve been received, and along with getting the results they needed, United have helped the gap tighten by dropping far too many points themselves. After only one defeat in their first 27 league matches, United have three in their last eight, with wins against Bolton, West Ham, Fulham, and Everton, along with a disappointing goalless draw at Newcastle, giving them only 13 points from a possible 24 in that span.
So then, it’s squeaky bum time for the United faithful, considering how close the race is heading into the back stretch and how close United are to a historic title that’s about a lot more than the last several months. There’s also the memory of this very fixture last season, when a defeat, and a controversial one at that, turned the tide of the title race in Chelsea’s favor and, mathematically at least, proved to be ‘the’ difference.
While there’s naturally some nerves when it comes to matches of this magnitude, anything that resembles fear should be replaced by confidence. Despite how close the title race now is after United had held a far more comprehensive lead all of a couple of weeks ago, we’re still in the driver’s seat as we have been for the better part of the season, and we have the advantage of hosting this important showdown at home.
You can say that didn’t matter last season, but the numbers favor the hosts. In 25 home matches in all competitions this season, United have won 23 and drawn only twice, and we’ve already locked down the best home mark in the Premier League, with 16 wins and a solitary draw at home against West Brom. Since that 2-2 draw in October, United have won 13 home league matches in a row, outscoring the opposition 32-5, recording eight clean sheets and not allowing more than one goal on any occasion.
As shaky as United have been away from home this season, we’ve been every bit as assured and steady at Old Trafford. It shows in the statistics, and it shows in the performances as well. As a result, we’re on the cusp of securing one of the few achievements still left unchecked on Fergie’s grand checklist.
And for what it’s worth, given where many had pegged United ahead of the season, we should feel even more confident about the title coming back to Old Trafford. After not bringing in anyone of note, many preseason predictions had United coming up short again this season, with Chelsea repeating as champions.
Chelsea’s blistering start made it appear that everyone else might be playing for second this season, and at the same time, United stumbled out of the gate, with a draw-filled first couple of months.
Then, a funny thing happened. United, after doing enough over the first few months to stay close enough, started winning, Chelsea suddenly started looking like mere mortals instead of the superhuman team some thought them to be, and in late November, we moved top for the first time in the season.
Since the 1-0 win over Arsenal in December, we’ve been at the head of the pack, and through some stumbles and bumbles that are more ill-timed than surprising, here we are, three matches left, three points ahead, with the biggest match of the season at our fortress, and in the Champions League final on top of that.
And those no-name signings? One has emerged as the club’s second-leading scorer, one of the Premier League’s top scorers, and perhaps the steal of the summer transfer window. The other has filled in admirably in our back line, already proving that the high investment in him was well worth it and that he has the potential to be a defensive stalwart for United for many years.
And as for all of the players that some might have thought were past it prior to the season or at some point during the season? Well, think again.
Overall, this could be considered one of the best jobs Fergie has done in his time at United, if not the best. Beyond the opportunity to be the best in England and in Europe again, goals that Manchester United strive for every season, it’s about what he’s gotten out of this team all season, how this team has risen to the occasion in so many key moments, how this team has overcome injury, adversity, and controversy to be in position for those honors, as unlikely as it may have seemed prior to or during the season.
It can be hard for some to look beyond the closeness of the title race, look beyond a few results, look beyond certain negative moments recent or distant, and feel confident. But when United take the pitch against Chelsea in a few short hours, there isn’t any doubt that confidence, belief, and faith will be permeating through the side. And just as some preseason predictions may have overlooked the supreme belief and resilience that have defined Manchester United’s history and didn’t account that this season would be as fine an example of those characteristics as any in the Fergie era, anyone, United supporter, neutral, or otherwise, shouldn’t today.
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- Your predictions – who will United sell this summer?
- Fast and hard, fast and hard.
- United Roll Revs In 2nd Half To Start U.S. Tour With A Bang
Tags: Manchester United News
Opti (541)
RedDevilEddy (459)
Stephen (454)
Craig Mc (344)
Moscow is my heaven (272)
I honestly don’t care who City sign. No one will be screwed. I said it 2 years ago. I said it beginning of this season and I’m saying it now. Let them sign Sneijder or Kaka or whatever else flavor of the month there is. Same result. Zero. Just like Arsenal, they don’t have the right mentality and character to win. Good for them if they win the FA Cup. If Stoke are in the final, it means they could have won it regardless of mega investments. Portsmouth won it a few years back. Let’s see them win the title. In fact Liverpool next season should be more reliable opponents. Manchester City are a joke, have always been a joke and have now upgraded to a waste of time
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Everyone said the same about Chelsea when Abramovich took over. It’s different with City. The good news I guess is the absolute death of anyone not in the top 4 this season. City will not be dropping out next season. Neither will we. Neither will Chelsea. Arsenal are the only possible, and even they look likely to spend this summer. Spurs are done and so are Liverpool.
There was a top 3 and a next three. There is now a top 4.
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We’re gonna be crowned the motherfucking Kings of England next weekend, overshadowing the most important day of City’s history for 40 years.
City are mutilating themselves into something totally unsustainable. Right now, owning football clubs is the big ego fix for the billionaires. Just imagine for one second the consequences of the Arab sheik pulling the plug on them. It will be a bigger collapse than Leeds or Liverpool or anything we’ve ever seen before. Mass exodus of players, financial accounts hitting the fan, complete and utter meltdown. It would take them a decade to recover to a respectable position.
That kind of thing couldn’t happen to us, I honestly believe we’re too big to be brought down, but City? Who gives a fuck about those small time dreamers. Everything they achieve is meaningless, and their failures made just the more hilarious by the sheer nature of their lottery existence. Forever in United’s shadow.
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@[OPTI]Madschester United: He’s probably sold them one of them! Everyone knows what everyone else is up to. How do you think so many of our deals were nicked by Chelsea in the past? Agents talk to players, agents talk, players talk and sometimes Fergie goes for a nice dinner in Madrid with a super agent.
Citeh will have had a list of players they know will come if they get Champions League football (and this is the ONLY reason Kaka went to Madrid over Citeh) which they will now be able to finalise. Our best hope is that players might not sign until after the Champs League qualifying round, just in case, and then Citeh do an Everton.
This is literally the doomsday scenario. Citeh will win the league within 3 years, and we’ll never hear the end of it.
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@Moscow is my heaven: Abramovich hasn’t done it yet. And he’s no where near as rich.
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@Johnsom33- I spoke at length, as is my irritating habit, about the implications of the Financial Fair Play regulations and where City stand relative to these. That was last year. Summary. Clubs which spend more than they earn will be barred from all UEFA competitions. This is from the 2012-2013 season, but regulations are based on spending from last season onwards. So City are def screwed. Only solution is to sell, the bulk of their expensive players, but lack of revenue esp with tickets, will still be a hindrance. Late last year, a top UEFA rep confirmed that the regulations are going to be effective as scheduled and have been approved by the EU. Later Platini speaking in Italy, confirmed this as well and warned “certain” clubs which are not adhering that they’ll suffer the consequences. The top clubs are safe due to high revenues, but City and to some extent Chelsea,are in trouble. I won’t bet against these regulations if I were in charge of a football club because Platini and Blatter usually say what they mean and mean what they say and tend to get what they want. And they’ve been speaking against mega spending and exploitation of young players for a while now. And they both seem to have it against English football and Real Madrid.
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@Jay wire: For once I find myself agreeing with most of that. Platini does mean business, no question.
Problem is, there’ll be a great deal of “creative” bookkeeping going on before the final reckoning is done. How lenient UEFA will be remains to be seen.
Don’t forget there will be a a huge amount of financial leverage applied by the richest clubs on UEFA to turn a blind eye. It’s possible, also, that a firm stance on this issue could create a climate for rebellion, making the idea of an independent Euro Super League a plausible option, once again.
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I am going to post this again because I had to get approved and the post got lost. Its been a long long time since I posted her (have since given up my season ticket at OT….after something like 20 years!)
” The best teams stand out because they are teams, because the individual members have been so truly integrated that the team functions with a single spirit. There is a constant flow of mutual support among the players, enabling them to feed off strengths and compensate for weaknesses. They depend on one another, trust on one another. A manager should engender that sense of unity. He should create a bond among his players and between him and them that raises performance to heights that were unimaginable when they started out as disparate individuals. “
This is from somewhere near the end of Fergie’s biography and written over 10 years ago now. I think it perfectly encapsulates this United team (and maybe Ferguson’s whole career?).
I think we are all are guilty of ridiculous big name shopping lists in the Summer and doom mongering when these players don’t arrive. This team proves that all that nonsense should be kept for computer game fantasy, as long as we have this manager I have now decided I am not going to worry anymore! The alternatives in world football at this present time just make me shudder.
Unfortunately Barcelona have this exact same quality…..aswell as some shit hot players. If we were playing any other team in Europe then this United team would wipe the floor with them. As it is we are going into a final as underdogs, which has never been the United way but it leaves me feeling quietly confident and strangely relaxed about the whole affair!
PS I will not be attending the final or financially contributing to the whole sordid affair any more though.
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also regarding Fergie’s quote, maybe, over 10 years on, its better to replace ‘team’ with ‘squad’,
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@Dominic: Fergie is definitely the best there is and the best that’s ever been. A true master of his trade and a stalwart to his own principles. He not only has the right ideas, but the courage to stick by them.
Too bad his bosses have limited his hand with the kind of players that he would like, ideally. But we are so fortunate that, even with one hand tied behind his back, he’s light years ahead of his closest rivals.
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@Redrich:
Amen to that.
Imagine if he retired in 2003? With every season now he is getting close to the point where he’s the undisputed best pound for pound manager of all time.
If he’s not there already?
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also I seem to remember a few years back that it was apparently all about Queiroz modernising United and Fergie was actually tactically inferior and in awe of this genius from Portugal.
Which was always a pile of crap, fed to us by a British press looking for a new story/excuse to Fergie-bash….unfortunately a lot of people bought it.
Including some people on this blog I seem to remember…cough, cough
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Sorry Fergie actually planned to retire in 2002…..9 years ago……christ!
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@Dominic: …and without naming names, I would say … choke, choke, choke.
I give the media some slack because they are in the business of selling their opinions. But for United fans to come out from woodwork with bold and brazen theories about how they could have all done better themselves, is laughable. Do they really think that they could compete with the likes of SAF, and in an arena that would be totally alien to them?? Well I guess they do.
Makes me wonder, mate.
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@Traverse: As others have mentioned above, im not overly concerned about city and what they do tbh as at the end of the day they are still a small club with a small mentality, and a psychotic obsession with all things united (which may be their undoing).
The cream of the crop players out there wont take a second look at city, because they know wastelands is just where you go to die, for players past their best, or players with massive egos who believe their own hype in the press. Their genuine quality signings have been few and far between, with only imo, adam johnson, silva and yaya toure of recent years, being of any real quality. Considering theyve pissed away close to half a billion quid on players who are generally shite or just over rated money grabbing little brats, tells its own story.
They are not in the business of building a team, and their blueprint for success in completely flawed. Buying players with massive egos who come out on their first day there and already start talking about their next career move within the next 18 months arent really what successful teams build their teams from.
They lack in basic terms, their very own giggsys, scholesys, fletchers, and even ferdinands, evras, hernandez who genuinelly care for their club. Even chelski for all their critics back in 2004 when they went crazy were going more for up and coming players (robben, essien, drogba, cech etc) but always had the backbone of the team sorted in terry, lampard and even joe cole. City dont have that, they fill their team with mercenaries who really couldnt give a shite. Players who will give an out of this world performance at home blackburn one week, then the next away to blackpool in the pissing down rain at 1-0 behind, look exactly what they are. A bunch of over paid, spoilt little so and sos whose only thoughts are what to spend their next £200k on.
So whilst i sort of envy the way they can go out and bring in whoever they want, im still of the opinion they arent a threat to us, right now anyway. Not whilst they have mancini in charge who isnt suited to this league, nor while they continue with their policy of buying over rated, big ego players who really couldnt give a shit about the club. It will all end in tears me thinks, especially if as others who are more in the know, are to believed with the fair play rules coming in and their future within the CL being unclear.
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I’m not worried about city either. Everyone said Chelsea was going to dominate everybody but they haven’t. Money can only take them so far, Chelsea needed mourinho to transform the mentality of the club, Mancini doesnt have the personality to do that. He is too laid back.
They already have a stacked team, I don’t really see who us out their that they could get who would drastically improve the squad. Don’t forget that if they add a superstar they are going to piss off the guys who ate already there. Guys like ade who couldn’t by a game at city couldn’t be good for locker room morale.
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@Johnsom33: I like the fact that citeh has gotten their scrawny arse into the top 4.
It only gives United more reason to outclass them on in the transfer market, just like we do on the field of play. It’s game on now (or the Glazers will lie down like tired dogs waiting for a fan supported flea bath), and we’ll just have to take a more active role.
This opportunity only happens once in a blue moon.
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“Henandez prays before matches? you all MUST be crazy… he isn’t praying, he is saying grace for the goals we’re about to recieve!”
lol redcast win!
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@[OPTI]Madschester United:
WTF is Kaka’s mom doing on twitter??? Spreading the message of god online as well i guess 
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@Redrich: You didn’t read what I wrote. I spoke of how unfair it was to Berba but then I also spoke about the fact that Fergie had to do what he felt was best for the team and from the results he was right in playing Hernandez over Berba. It’s the toughest part of being a manager but that is why Fergie has no equals. I may not have liked it but I have to respect it because the success of Hernandez and the fact he elevates Rooney’s game too proves he was right.
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@Stephen: And that was my point. I’d love for him to cripple some Barca shemales with his recklessness.
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@gator: Actually this is a very good TEAM. What they aren’t is an overly talented one. Great work ethic, determination and teamwork can overcome their lack of individual skill or class. Praise must go to Fergie for what he manages to get out of this bunch.
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Fabio is more composed defensively than Rafael i would think. Rafael is better going forward.
Anyone fancy JOS to Evra for the CL final? Evra does get caught out defensively many a times and with Messi/Villa and Alves on the flank, would JOS be a better option?
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@godzilla: JOS pace will be punished by Pedro, Messi, and Villa…. Evra is better.
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@godzilla: No chance, Evra is a terrific player but is out of form. Form is tempory class is permanent.
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@Grognard: I think what you said was “fuck off to all berba haters”.
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@Redrich: Yes but I said it with love.
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@godzilla: Fergie loves Evra, he can do no wrong in his eyes.
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