We all know how popular football betting is these days and also how influential bookmakers are within football finances and sponsorship, but do we punters spend enough time really studying the form and coming up with a strategy to beat the odds?
2 years ago I began to create an algorithm which would find me the best team to lay* at ‘odds-on favourite’. It began well but I lost my way with it after making a few alterations each time the system threw up a result that was wrong, from there the algorithm got skewed and I lost faith in it. Lesson learned, next time I’ll save it before each alteration.
I was convinced I could produce a piece of software that would, over a season, throw up more winners than losers and therefore, at odds-on, would lead to a profit.
That leads me to talking about a little known site called Betegy.com. At Betegy they’re attempting to produce a similar algorithm, but rather than attempting to find one result to make money from, Betegy attempts to predict the result and the scoreline for every game in the Premier League and games in Germany, France, Italy and Spain.
Manchester United got their Champions League campaign off to a winning start as they defeated Galatasaray 1-0 to secure Sit Alex Ferguson’s 100th win in the competition.
Michael Carrick scored his first goal in Europe in three years, but United were made to sweat until the last of five minutes of injury time for their second win in five attempts against the Istanbul side.
It was the night when United confirmed that rustiness on the continental stage wasn’t a seasonal malaise typical of last year, as it still seems to engulf United’s engines.
Manchester United played host to Wigan, with memories fresh of the 1-0 loss at the DW Stadium towards the end of last season. 3 points that the Red Devils could have used, but they played poorly and struggled to deal with the 3-5-2 that Roberto Martinez’s side played extremely well. This game started well for the Latics, as they were able to disrupt Sir Alex Ferguson’s side and keep them from getting into an offensive rhythm. Wigan’s pressure, combined with Fergie’s decision to rest key players ahead of the Champion’s League tie on Wednesday led both teams to go in at the half scoreless. Wigan was effective at limiting United’s chances in the first half, but they struggled to create any chances of their own. In the second half, Manchester United was finally able to unlock Wigan’s defense after 5 minutes. Once the Red Devils got their first goal, the flood gates opened and Wigan struggled to deal with the higher pace United played at. By the time the final whistle blew, United had netted 4 and Wigan only managed 1 shot on target in a decisive victory for the Red Devils. Continue reading
When, on Wednesday night, Manchester United will get their European campaign underway against Galatasaray they will not only be looking to make the first step on the road to Wembley but also, first and foremost, they will want to show their fans that they have not taken Europe’s biggest competition lightly.
Paul Scholes celebrated his 700th game for United by scoring against Wigan, as the Reds blitzed the Latics in the second half at Old Trafford.
Having negotiated the dreaded international break with no serious casualties, fans can breathe a sigh of relief. However, they cannot relax as the Red Devils must guard against a combination of complacency and tiredness when they welcome Wigan to Old Trafford. Last time these teams met, of course, the Latics dealt a stinging blow to United’s title aspirations, and Roberto Martinez will be looking to take advantage of a defence that has already leaked 5 goals in 3 games. Continue reading
In only 3 games this season, it seems more likely that Sir Alex Ferguson’s dominant formation this year will be an off-shoot of the 4-3-3. The last time that Sir Alex Ferguson used a 4-3-3 as his dominant formation was between 2006 and 2009, a period when the Red Devils won 3 straight Premier League titles, a League cup and the Champion’s League. Sir Alex Ferguson has always been associated with the 4-4-2, and achieved considerable success with this formation but that didn’t stop his tactics from evolving.
Some managers achieve success with a formation, and will only use this formation for the rest of their career. A good example of this is Giovanni Trapattoni, currently coaching the Republic of Ireland national team, but Fergie has always evolved with the time, even if it is slightly slow at times. After seeing Jose Mourinho’s Chelsea team win the League twice (2004-2005, 2005-2006), United started to toy with the 4-3-3 that Chelsea used, and he made several changes until this formation led to one of United’s most successful runs. Continue reading